1. Threat Definition and Description
a) What is the hazard(s)?
(1) Significant characteristics
(2) Primary and secondary
(3) Is it part or an effect of a larger system?
– If so, describe the main components of the system.
– How do they relate to the origin and development of the hazard?
b) Reasons the event, condition, or trend poses a significant threat
(1) To a particular or general area and/or population
(2) Immediate and long-term
(3) Direct and collateral
2. Risk Identification
a) What is at risk?
(1) Describe the “target(s)” threatened by the hazard in terms of:
– Composition (system components)
– Asset value(s) and loss potential
(2) Vulnerability and exposure of target(s)
– To direct and indirect hazard effects
– Short and long-term (2) Those fixed or variable characteristics that make it prone to damage or loss from the threat (vulnerability factors)
b) Relationship between hazard and target
(1) Principal factors affecting cause-and-effect (think “system”)
(2) Exacerbating and mitigating factors
– Situational (physical, scientific, etc.)
3. Risk Determination
a) Likelihood of threat occurrence and impact on target
(1) Factors, conditions dictating degree of uncertainty as to specific risk(s).
(2) Interactive variables and effects on probability calculations
– “Best” case
– “Worst” case
– “Most likely” case
(4) Matrix analysis: weighted value of at-risk assets versus estimated likelihood of threat exposure and subsequent loss/damage
4. Mitigation options and priorities based on risk analysis:
a) How might mitigation measures alter risk calculations?
b) Prioritized management actions based on relative value of resources at risk.
c) Warning, prevention, or impact reduction resources available.