Forecasting:

 

For Problems 1-3 consider the following data:

a Demand
10 248
11 430
12 324
13 263
14 555

1)      Develop  a 3 period moving average forecast for periods 13-15

2)      Develop two period weighted moving average model for periods 12-15. Use weights of 0.7 and 0.3, with the most recent observation weighted the highest

3)      Develop an exponential smoothing forecast (SD=0.25) for Periods 11-15. Assume the forecast for period 10 was 294

4)      Consider the forecasts shown below. Calculate MAD and MFE using the data for months January through June. Does the model over or under forecast? Comment on the importance of this.

Month Actual Demand Forecast Forecast Error Absolute Forecast Error
Jan 1040 1055 -15 15
Feb 990 1052 -62 62
Mar 980 900 80 80
Apr 1060 1025 35 35
May 1080 1100 -20 20
Jun 1000 1050 -50 50
Totals        

 

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