For Problems 1-3 consider the following data:

aDemand
10248
11430
12324
13263
14555

1)      Develop  a 3 period moving average forecast for periods 13-15

2)      Develop two period weighted moving average model for periods 12-15. Use weights of 0.7 and 0.3, with the most recent observation weighted the highest

3)      Develop an exponential smoothing forecast (SD=0.25) for Periods 11-15. Assume the forecast for period 10 was 294

4)      Consider the forecasts shown below. Calculate MAD and MFE using the data for months January through June. Does the model over or under forecast? Comment on the importance of this.

MonthActual DemandForecastForecast ErrorAbsolute Forecast Error
Jan10401055-1515
Feb9901052-6262
Mar9809008080
Apr106010253535
May10801100-2020
Jun10001050-5050
Totals    

 

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