Suppose a birdwatcher averages spotting 0.3 rare finches every day during the two hours allotted for watching. This means that the birdwatcher spots, on average, three rare finches every 10 days.
The average is based on considerable experience. Over a given 10-day period, the birdwatcher sees zero rare finches in five days, and on the sixth day, the birdwatcher declares, “I’m due to see a rare finch today.”
Assume that the environmental conditions are reasonably constant with no seasonal migratory issues involved. There is reasonably consistent weather and there are no confounding
(lurking, unseen) variables involved. There is, however, a flaw in the birdwatcher’s statement. What is the error and why is it wrong?
Would you choose the binomial pdf (probability distribution function) or would you choose the Poisson pdf to better analyze the birdwatcher’s scenario (Triola, Sec. 4.3 & 4.4, 2006)?
State the necessary criteria for each distribution and support your decision.
Triola, M. M., Triola, M. D., & Triola, M. F. (2006). Biostatistics for the biological and health sciences. Retrieved from The University of Phoenix eBook Collection database.
Read the article What are Relative Risk,
Number Needed to Treat and Odds Ratio? from the Electronic Reserve Readings on the Materials web page for Week 2. Summarize the measures of relative risk, number needed to treat, and odds ratios. In your opinion, which of these measures is most informative? Why are they frequently used together? Explain.